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For investors, it may feel like déjà vu all over again as inflation and the Fed dominate market headlines on a day-to-day basis. After all, driving the numerous market swings last year were the ever-changing expectations around the Fed - both when investors believed the Fed was doing too little, and when they thought the Fed was tightening too much. With markets once again concerned about the direction of the Fed, what do investors need to know about how the story is evolving?

Layoff announcements are ramping up as companies adjust to slowing sales and profitability. So far, significant job cuts have been concentrated in technology and consumer-related industries due to overhiring during the pandemic recovery when demand was extreme. Whether this spills into the broader economy is the subject of debate among investors and economists. With markets already expecting a mild recession in 2023, how should long-term investors maintain perspective on this topic over the next year?

Last year, the bear market in bonds shocked markets and raised questions about the role of fixed-income securities in portfolios. The primary driver of this was, until 2021, inflation had been steadily falling for 40 years, pushing interest rates lower and bond prices higher. This period supported the idea that bonds act as a stable foundation for portfolios, counterbalancing the price swings in stocks and other riskier assets. Naturally, with both stocks and bonds falling last year, many investors may wonder if they need to rethink the role of fixed income in their portfolios.

Over the past week, there has been nonstop news coverage of the federal government hitting the $31.4 trillion borrowing limit known as the debt ceiling. Once again, Washington drama is on center stage as the Treasury Department enacts "extraordinary measures" to not default on its obligations. Although this has become a regular occurrence, many investors are still understandably nervous. While it's unclear how this will play out politically before the estimated June 5 deadline, the fortunate news is that financial markets have taken these events in stride. How can investors maintain perspective around the fiscal uncertainty despite the political theater?

Recent market rallies and pullbacks have been driven by alternating hopes and fears around the Fed taking its foot off the brake pedal - so far, to no avail. Over the last few decades, many investors have been conditioned that "buying the dip" pays and that impulse is still there (old habits die hard), causing large counter-trend rallies. However, this playbook is proving to be dated and dangerous in this new regime of high macroeconomic uncertainty, financial market volatility, inflation, and interest rates.

Major stock market indices have rebounded in October as investors hope for a slowdown in the pace of Fed rate hikes. As of Friday, October 28, the S&P 500 had gained 8.8% over the month, and its year-to-date loss was cut to 18%, just slightly better than bear market levels. The Dow is now above correction territory with a 9.6% year-to-date decline, while the Nasdaq, consisting of hard-hit tech stocks, gained 5% in October to reach a year-to-date pullback of 29%. This occurred despite a jump in interest rates, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4%. What's driving market optimism, and how should long-term investors maintain perspective?

It's no secret that this year has been characterized by market and economic uncertainty due to inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitics. Prolonged market unease can be attributed to the fact that these economic effects take time to evolve. Inflation is not an overnight event but the result of supply and demand factors since 2020, compounded by monetary and fiscal policies. As mentioned last week, the effects of tightening monetary policy by the Fed are realized on a significant lag. The spike in energy and commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine will not be resolved quickly. Political events in China, the U.K., and the upcoming U.S. midterm election only add to this uncertainty. These facts underscore the need for investors to focus on the long run and resist the urge to react to every market movement, whether positive or negative.

The latest inflation numbers confirm that the prices of everyday goods and services are still rising despite Fed rate hikes and a slowing economy. Major stock market indices continue to be in or near bear market levels, with the S&P 500 down 25% year-to-date, while interest rates jumped further last week, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4%. Whether the Fed can regain control of inflation while keeping the economy steady remains the central question for investors and economists. Since inflation data is only released monthly, GDP data quarterly, and the Fed only meets once every six weeks, it could be some time before this question is fully answered.

Global markets pulled back again last week following the Fed's announcement that it would tighten by another 75 basis points and keep rates higher for longer. Major indices are back to their June bear market lows, with the S&P 500 falling 23% year-to-date and the Nasdaq down 31%. Bonds have also struggled as all interest rates across the inverted yield curve have jumped, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2% and the 10-year to 3.7% - the highest levels since 2007 and 2010, respectively. Investors have been navigating this challenging market all year, and, for many, it may feel as if there is no relief in sight.

The market recovery has hit a bump due to uncertainty around interest rates and the Federal Reserve. Interest rates have driven markets all year with significant impacts on risk assets, economic growth, the housing market, energy costs, and the value of the dollar and foreign currency exchange rates. In an environment like this, market expectations matter just as much, if not more, as the actual numbers.